Worst case disasters eliminate ambiguity, decision-making


The worst-case scenario. It has it all. Drama, multiple hazards, multi-disciplinary, multi-jurisdictional. Something for everyone. Did I mention drama? Yep, the worst-case scenario has it all – except that actually it doesn’t.

Out here in California the standard worst-case scenario is a major earthquake, which can be accessorized with tsunamis, fires, hazmat releases, oil spills, looting, lost pets and anything else we need to make sure everyone who wants to play gets a part.

Back East, I hear, hurricane scenarios are popular. Pandemics had their time in the sun recently and may soon again. And of course we have a broad assortment of terrorist scenarios to choose from as well. Any one of them fully adjustable from Severe to Catastrophic. And isn’t that what emergency management is all about?

Um … well, no. Not entirely.

What’s missing from the worst-case scenario, but present in 99 and 44/100 percent of real-world emergencies and disasters? In a word: Ambiguity.

See Worst case disasters eliminate ambiguity, decision-making, by Art Botterell for Homeland1.

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Rothstein Associates is working on publishing a compilation of exercise scripts and scenarios for business continuity, disaster recovery, crisis management and emergency management.

If you are interested in contributing your favorite scripts or scenarios, contact Philip Jan Rothstein, FBCI.

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An unexercised contingency plan could be worse than no plan at all!

Be sure to read Disaster Recovery Testing: Exercising Your Contingency Plan, Philip Jan Rothstein, FBCI, Editor – the only book on this subject – for valuable tips, techniques and insights. Now only $49.00!

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