Colorado State Publishes 2009 Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Season
An early extended-range forecast for 2009 calls for somewhat above-average Atlantic basin hurricane activity, according to a new report from the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University. The report marks the 26th year of the CSU hurricane forecast.
The team’s first extended-range forecast for the 2009 hurricane season anticipates 14 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and November 30, 2009. Seven of the 14 storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those seven, three are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes, specifically Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
This forecast is based on an extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that uses 58 years of data. This statistical model explains a considerable amount of hurricane variability in hindcasts issued from 1950-2007. Over this time period, the three-predictor scheme correctly forecast above- or below-average seasons in 45 out of 58 years. The forecast model also successfully predicted an above-average season in 2008.
The CSU hurricane forecast team also predicts a 63 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the US coastline in 2009. The long-term average probability is 52 percent. For the US East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall is 39 percent (the long-term average is 31 percent). For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, the probability is 38 percent (the long-term average is 30 percent). The team predicts above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.
To review the forecast report click here.
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