Above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season expected
Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project continues to foresee above-average activity for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
They have increased their seasonal forecast from the mid-point of initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Niño will weaken. They anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
(as of 7 April 2010).
The Colorado State University team will issue forecast updates on June 2 and August 4.
The Tropical Meteorology Project is headed by Colorado State University’s Dr. William Gray. Professor Gray has worked in the observational and theoretical aspects of tropical meteorological research for more than 40 years. Most of this effort has gone to the investigation of meso-scale tropical weather phenomena. He has specialized in the global aspects of tropical cyclones for his entire professional career. Dr Gray received his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, Dept. of Geophysical Sciences in 1964. He has been with Colorado State University’s Dept. of Atmospheric Science since 1961, and has been a professor since 1974.
Dr. Gray’s hurricane forecast has gained international attention, and won him the Neil Frank Award of the National Hurricane Conference in 1995. His Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts are published here. (Archived forecasts are available).
Dr. Phil Klotzbach has worked with Dr. Gray on the seasonal hurricane forecasts since 2000 and is currently working as a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science. He designed the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Webpage which has received over 500,000 hits since its inception on June 1, 2004. His research interests include seasonal hurricane prediction and causes of climate change.
See Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2010, from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.
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Tags: hurricanes
