Rothstein: September 11 Changes Everything

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by Philp Jan Rothstein, FBCI

Ten years from now, people may look back at 2001 as the year when disaster recovery (DR) shifted from "a good idea if you can afford it" to "integral to the heart of your business." One only wishes it didn't take the tragedies of Sept. 11 to make it so.

From its roots in EDP mainframes in the 1970s to holistic, enterprise business continuity management in the 1990s, DR has had a tumultuous--and, at times, frustrating--history. Yet amid evolving technologies and changing priorities, the core mission of DR has remained the same: keep the business moving, protect people and preserve assets, regardless of the circumstances.

      But what happens when the circumstances are so overwhelming that the core premises of the DR plan are shattered? What happens when DR planners and other key people are lost, when bridges are closed between destroyed primary sites and recovery sites, when telephone and cell service is obliterated, when there's nothing left but dust and rubble?

      Isn't a time of disaster and doubt supposed to be DR's shining moment? Isn't that when all the planning, preparation, mitigation, protection and prevention are supposed to pay off? Perhaps, but as we have been so painfully reminded, not every disaster can be prepared for...or prevented.

      While it's of little consolation, the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks have clarified several DR trends for 2002 and beyond.

Beyond the data center. Through the first 10 months of 2001, we've seen business continuity/disaster recovery gradually expand its scope beyond the computer room doors, a trend that appears likely to accelerate in 2002.

      "The level of organizational accountability for disaster recovery has been slowly moving closer to the boardroom over the past decade, and 2002 is going to see stronger movement in this direction," says Melvyn Musson, business continuity planning manager for investment firm Edward Jones. "Stewardship of business continuity is also going to move to those in the boardroom most directly involved with business functions, not just with technology."

Cooperative vision, integrated execution. Integration and coordination of the often disparate subdisciplines of business continuity management--crisis management and communications, IT recovery, facility emergency management, risk management, business process continuity--will become more critical than ever.
"There will be an even greater need for integration between these departments, as well as among the business areas," says Musson. "For business continuity to work in 2002 and beyond, personal relationships are going to be every bit as essential as
departmental relationships."

Divide, Distribute, Disperse. Many organizations may be rethinking plans to consolidate business operations or data centers in light of recent events, says Paul Honey, director of global continuity planning for Merrill Lynch. One of the largest tenants of the World Trade Center, the financial services giant handled the tragic events of Sept. 11 better than many.

      "Ninety percent of our workforce was back to work Monday [Sept. 17], but a lot of companies have people in one building without the ability to disperse to other buildings," Honey says.

      Conversely, Honey still believes that "with improving technology price and performance, you can still have a centralized data center, as long as you have a solid, remote backup."

Impact-based planning. The Sept. 11 attacks diminished the importance of event probabilities in business continuity planning (who really cares if the probability of an event is 0.001 percent or 0.0001 percent?). Honey expects "a shift to impact-based instead of probability-based assessment and planning, especially in the financial services industries." This trend has been growing over the past couple of years; Honey notes that Merrill Lynch has been doing it since 1999.

DR industry expansion. Consolidation of DR industry players, accelerated in 2001 by the likely acquisition of Comdisco's DR business, can be expected to reverse in 2002 as new players move in to take advantage of expanding market opportunities. Next year, after many years of respectable but not spectacular gains, DR industry growth rates could easily double--or triple.

Increased demand may very well strain the professional and service resources of the industry. Increased focus on professional education and certification is likely to result, as well as better recognition of practitioners along with their range of skills and experience. Rising compensation levels for seasoned practitioners can be expected. An upsurge in the formalization of professional practices, which have been woefully lacking in many aspects of business continuity/disaster recovery, is possible in 2002.

After the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, former football great Merlin Olsen said, "One of life's most painful moments comes when we must admit that we didn't do our homework, that we were not prepared." Going forward from Sept 11, they are words the disaster recovery profession must take to heart.

Philip Jan Rothstein, FBCI, pjr@rothstein.com, is president of the management consulting firm Rothstein Associates Inc., and editor of several books on disaster recovery and business continuity management.

E-mail Rothstein Associates Inc.